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Vaapad Capital

Field Notes

Long-form research, theses & market commentary

10 Jun 26167 min read

Der Preis des Überlebens

Eine Goldgesellschaft, die ihre eigene Insolvenz überlebt hat — und die der Markt noch immer so bepreist, als wäre sie daran gestorben. Eine Sektor- und Unternehmensanalyse zu Namib Minerals (NASDAQ: NAMM), dem operativen Goldpreis-Hebel und der Survivor-Junior-Dynamik.

GoldJunior MiningZimbabweNAMMSurvivor JuniorOperating Leverage
14 May 26180 min readSubscriber

Seltene Erden im Robotik-Zeitalter — Eine Dissertation über die nicht-substituierbaren 4f-Materialien, die globale Cost-Curve-Hierarchie und die Survivor-Investor-Doktrin

Eine umfassende Untersuchung der Seltenen Erden als strategische Substanz des kommenden Robotik-Zeitalters — von der Geologie Tasmaniens und der Antarktis über die Quantenphysik der 4f-Elektronen bis zur ökonomischen Vermessung menschlicher Arbeit über drei Jahrhunderte. Eine These über die größte Resourcen-Manie der Weltgeschichte.

reerobotikrohstoffethesis
04 May 2617 min readSubscriber

Der unsichtbare Engpass

Warum Dysprosium und Terbium die geopolitische Waffe der Roboter-Revolution sind — und der HREE-Markt einen deutlich größeren Hype-Cycle als Lithium auslösen wird.

reehreerobotikmagneterohstoffegeopolitik
22 Dec 2512 min readSubscriber

The Shanghai Squeeze

China's sole silver ETF trades at a 12% premium while domestic exchanges hit historic inventory lows — private investors are storming the exits of a system that cannot deliver the metal they are buying.

silverchinashanghaietfmarket-microstructureshort-squeezeicbc
03 Nov 2524 min readSubscriber

The Gold-Silver Ratio — From Prehistory to Clown World

Seven thousand years of monetary history, condensed into a single number — and what that number reveals about the modern market.

silvergoldgold-silver-ratiomonetary-historycommoditiesmacro
22 Oct 2518 min readSubscriber

Meryllion’s 833 km² — Undervalued Among the Survivors of the HREE Squeeze

ABx's Deep Leads is Australia's premier clay-hosted HREE resource. Meryllion holds adjacent, geologically identical ground — marginally larger — at 40% of ABx's market cap. The gap is not explained by geology.

reehreemeryllionabxtasmaniaminingequity-researchundervaluation
21 Sept 2515 min readSubscriber

100-Bagger Bear Creek

Corani holds 229 million ounces of silver at a C$95M market cap. At $100/oz silver, the math points between a C$29 base and a C$179 extreme — a Lassonde-Curve inflection hiding in plain sight.

silverminingbear-creekcoraniperulassonde-curveequity-research

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Field Notes

Long-form research published by the founder — position theses, post-mortems, macro reads. Freely available to the public; subscribers get the full text inside the terminal.

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