FIELD NOTE · OCTOBER 2025 · RARE EARTHS & MICROCAPS
Meryllion's 833 km²
ABx's Deep Leads is Australia's premier clay-hosted HREE resource. Meryllion holds adjacent, geologically identical ground — marginally larger — at 40% of ABx's market cap. The gap is not explained by geology.
Methodology: Comparative Valuation · IAC Project Analysis · Peer-to-Peer Per-km² Benchmarking
Sources: Meryllion Resources Corp. disclosures · ABx Group ASX announcements (Oct 13, 2025) · ANSTO metallurgical test results · Public filings
Frame: HREE supply squeeze · IAC adjacency thesis · Staged exploration upside
As of: October 22, 2025
INTRODUCTION · SUPPLY CONTEXT
The HREE Squeeze
China's export restrictions on dysprosium and terbium, effective April 2025, have crystallized what the market knew was coming but priced as if it wouldn't. Supply for these two critical heavy rare earth elements runs at approximately 400 metric tons annually against demand exceeding 3,000 metric tons — a structural gap running at 7.5× supply, driven by permanent magnet demand in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics. With China's own ionic adsorption clay (IAC) deposits in Jiangxi declining and Myanmar supply disrupted, that ratio is not correcting in the near term.
The substitution logic points clearly to non-Chinese IAC projects — specifically those combining the right geology, jurisdiction, metallurgy, and proximity to infrastructure. IAC operations carry a structural cost advantage over hard-rock operations: capital requirements of $10–50 million versus $100 million or more, development timelines measured in years rather than decades, and an environmental profile that substantially simplifies permitting. Shallow extraction, site rehabilitation, low radioactivity, no tailings facilities — these attributes matter both to project economics and to the political environment that approves them.
